REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 31928 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 18% faster than plan

Finished 17:5512h40

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 9h16m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0006:331h18-41mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0307:242h1007:272h12-53m09:103h55 +1h45+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5009:444h3009:474h32-1h2012:106h55 +2h25+in +out
Cramer Road26.112:397h2511:055h50-1h3513:458h30 +2h40+in +out
Temperance33.214:479h3212:467h3112:497h34-2h0116:0010h45 +3h14+in +out
Sawbill38.416:3211h1714:179h0214:279h12-2h1517:4012h25 +3h23+in +out
Oberg44.118:2013h0615:4210h2715:5210h37-2h3919:1013h55 +3h28+in +out
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0017:5512h40-3h2022:0016h45 +4h05+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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