REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 31788 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 14% slower than plan

Finished 23:4518h30

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 3h26m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:202h0507:292h15+6mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:433h2808:523h38+26m09:103h55 +27m+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5011:546h4012:056h51+50m12:106h55 +15m+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:448h2913:558h40+1h0513:458h30 +1m+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:2411h1016:3411h20+1h3716:0010h45 -25m+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:2313h0918:4313h29+1h5217:4012h25 -44m+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0620:4415h3020:5415h39+2h2419:1013h55 -1h35+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0023:4518h30+2h3022:0016h45 -1h45+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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