REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 31769 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

ultraPacer plan Garmin MapShare map

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 31% slower than plan

Projected finish 03:4322h29 (03:3622h21–03:5222h37) — past the 22:0016h45 cutoff

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.0—✓07:142h0007:452h3008:143h00+31mnone+in +out
! Crosby-Manitou11.1✓✓08:173h0309:264h1209:364h21+1h0909:103h55 -17m+in +out
! Sugarloaf20.8✓✓11:055h5012:577h4213:067h52+1h5212:106h55 -47m+in +out
! Cramer Road26.1✓✓12:397h2515:2710h1315:4710h32+2h4813:458h30 -1h43+in +out
! Temperance33.2—✓14:479h3218:3213h1818:4313h28+3h4616:0010h45 -2h33+in +out
! Sawbill38.4✓✓16:3211h1720:5315h3921:0415h49+4h2217:4012h25 -3h14+in +out
! Oberg44.1✓✓18:2013h0623:1217h5723:5218h38+4h5219:1013h55 -4h02+in +out
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.6✓✓21:1516h00~03:43~22h29 ±8m22:0016h45 -5h44+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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