REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 31280 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 20% faster than plan

Finished 17:3412h20

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 9h36m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0006:451h3006:481h33-29mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0307:352h2007:382h23-43m09:103h55 +1h35+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5009:444h3009:474h33-1h2112:106h55 +2h25+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2510:555h40-1h4413:458h30 +2h50+time
Temperance33.214:479h3212:267h1212:287h14-2h2116:0010h45 +3h33+time
Sawbill38.416:3211h1713:548h3914:048h49-2h3817:4012h25 +3h46+time
Oberg44.118:2013h0615:2210h0715:3110h17-2h5819:1013h55 +3h48+time
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0017:3412h20-3h4022:0016h45 +4h25+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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