REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 29688 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 3% faster than plan

Finished 20:4415h30

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 6h26m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:101h5607:202h06-4mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:143h0008:243h10-3m09:103h55 +55m+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5011:055h50-0m12:106h55 +1h05+in +out
Cramer Road26.112:397h2512:277h1312:377h23-12m13:458h30 +1h17+in +out
Temperance33.214:479h3214:549h4015:059h50+7m16:0010h45 +1h05+in +out
Sawbill38.416:3211h1716:3411h1916:5311h39+2m17:4012h25 +1h06+in +out
Oberg44.118:2013h0618:1212h5718:2113h07-9m19:1013h55 +58m+in +out
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0020:4415h30-30m22:0016h45 +1h15+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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