REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 28994 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 19% slower than plan

Finished 00:4419h30

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 2h26m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:352h2007:452h30+21mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0309:043h4909:244h09+46m09:103h55 +6m+time
! Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:146h5912:247h10+1h0912:106h55 -4m+time
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2514:078h5314:279h13+1h2813:458h30 -23m+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:5411h3917:2412h10+2h0716:0010h45 -54m+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1719:1213h5819:2214h08+2h4117:4012h25 -1h33+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0621:1315h59+2h5319:1013h55 -2h04+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0000:4419h30+3h3022:0016h45 -2h45+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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