REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 14733 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 9% faster than plan

Finished 19:3414h20

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 7h36m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0006:491h34-25mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0307:442h30-33m09:103h55 +1h25+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5010:054h50-1h0012:106h55 +2h05+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2511:246h1011:356h20-1h1513:458h30 +2h20+time
Temperance33.214:479h3213:148h0013:248h10-1h3216:0010h45 +2h45+time
Sawbill38.416:3211h1715:139h5915:2410h09-1h1817:4012h25 +2h26+time
Oberg44.118:2013h0616:4411h3016:5411h40-1h3619:1013h55 +2h25+time
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0019:3414h20-1h4022:0016h45 +2h25+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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